Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.023178 0.026346 0.029802 0.033855 0.038481 0.043601 0.049702
2025-02-16 0.017948 0.022209 0.027279 0.033767 0.041865 0.051662 0.064449
2025-02-23 0.015192 0.019907 0.025854 0.033927 0.044639 0.058414 0.077557
2025-03-02 0.013038 0.017896 0.024321 0.033475 0.046241 0.063502 0.088765
2025-03-09 0.011772 0.016822 0.023783 0.034127 0.049199 0.070495 0.103119
2025-03-16 0.010467 0.015499 0.022692 0.033787 0.050593 0.075290 0.114699
2025-03-23 0.009769 0.014948 0.022606 0.034834 0.054037 0.083308 0.131828
2025-03-30 0.008656 0.013641 0.021237 0.033750 0.054050 0.086030 0.140904
2025-04-06 0.007851 0.012719 0.020348 0.033291 0.054940 0.090124 0.152500
2025-04-13 0.006992 0.011618 0.019062 0.032035 0.054361 0.091710 0.159967
2025-04-20 0.006687 0.011395 0.019170 0.033089 0.057729 0.100157 0.180087
2025-04-27 0.006377 0.011128 0.019171 0.033943 0.060805 0.108350 0.200562
2025-05-04 0.006095 0.010895 0.019225 0.034925 0.064263 0.117658 0.224321
2025-05-11 0.005648 0.010329 0.018643 0.034703 0.065500 0.123056 0.241314
2025-05-18 0.005305 0.009917 0.018298 0.034875 0.067471 0.129983 0.261993
2025-05-25 0.004911 0.009372 0.017655 0.034409 0.068147 0.134450 0.278166
2025-06-01 0.004698 0.009153 0.017602 0.035081 0.071125 0.143721 0.305253
2025-06-08 0.004382 0.008703 0.017065 0.034731 0.071983 0.148762 0.323867
2025-06-15 0.004252 0.008612 0.017223 0.035808 0.075901 0.160503 0.358378
2025-06-22 0.003901 0.008042 0.016370 0.034693 0.075037 0.161992 0.370050
2025-06-29 0.003646 0.007648 0.015843 0.034220 0.075515 0.166412 0.388889
2025-07-06 0.003336 0.007112 0.014975 0.032928 0.074045 0.166361 0.397178
2025-07-13 0.003263 0.007079 0.015173 0.034012 0.078061 0.179106 0.437674